СМИ: правительство ухудшило прогноз по убыли населения России

Правительство двукратно ухудшило оценку сокращения общей численности населения России по итогам 2020 года — до 352,5 тыс. человек, пишет РБК. Это следует из октябрьской версии проекта единого плана правительства по достижению национальных целей развития России на период до 2024 года и на плановый период до 2030 года. Документ опубликовал Telegram-канал «Майский указ».

Правительство пересмотрело оценку демографической динамики — скорость сокращения общей численности населения России в 2020 году, по предварительной оценке, возрастет в 10 раз по сравнению с 2019-м: уменьшение на 352,5 тыс. человек против 32,1 тыс. человек в прошлом году. Ожидается, что в 2021 году численность населения страны снизится еще на 290 тыс. человек, в 2022-м — на 238,1 тыс., в 2023-м — на 189,1 тыс., а в 2024-м — на 165,3 тыс. человек. То есть население России будет сокращаться на протяжении всех четырех лет, а выход на положительные темпы прироста предполагается только в 2030 году. Суммарно население страны, согласно документу, за 2020–2024 годы уменьшится более чем на 1,2 млн человек.

По мнению экспертов, новая оценка выглядит намного более реалистичной и адекватной для описания текущей ситуации: произошло резкое торможение миграционных процессов, а естественная убыль населения России значительно ускорилась. Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости в 2020 году упадет до 1,4 или в лучшем случае удержится на уровне 2019 года (1,504), но этот негативный эффект краткросрочен и не окажет влияния на поколения. Последствием пандемии станет отсутствие роста ожидаемой продолжительности жизни в России, и если удастся удержать его на уровне 2019 года (73,3 года), это будет означать, что страна успешно справилась с кризисом, считают эксперты.

Новость

В условиях значительной естественной убыли миграция является важным источником восполнения трудовых ресурсов страны, говорится в проекте правительственного плана. Речь идет о качественном миграционном приросте за счет привлечения иностранных специалистов, готовых интегрироваться в общество и принять местные ценности, указывают чиновники. Необходимы увеличение стимулов для получения образования в России и меры по социально-культурной адаптации и интеграции мигрантов, признают они.

Доработка проекта единого плана по достижению национальных целей развития продолжается, сообщили в пресс-службе Минэкономразвития. Содержание проекта плана еще будет корректироваться, а цифры — уточняться. Как добавили в пресс-службе Минтруда, сейчас преждевременно делать какие-либо выводы на основе проекта плана до его утверждения.

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